Unyaka ka-2025 uza kuba ngobalulekileyo kwicandelo lezamandla nemithombo yendalo kwihlabathi liphela. Ingxabano eqhubekayo phakathi kweRussia neUkraine, ukumiswa kwemfazwe eGaza, kunye nengqungquthela ezayo ye-COP30 eBrazil - eya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo kumgaqo-nkqubo wemozulu - zonke ezi zinto zibumba imeko engaqinisekanga. Okwangoku, ukuqala kwexesha lesibini likaTrump, kunye namanyathelo okuqala emfazwe kunye neerhafu zorhwebo, kongeze iileya ezintsha zoxinzelelo lwezopolitiko.
Phakathi kwale meko inzima, iinkampani zamandla zijongene nezigqibo ezinzima malunga nokwabiwa kwemali kwiifosili kunye notyalo-mali olusebenzisa i-carbon ephantsi. Emva komsebenzi we-M&A owaphula irekhodi kwiinyanga ezili-18 ezidlulileyo, ukuhlanganiswa phakathi kwezona nkampani ziphambili zeoyile kuhlala kuqinile kwaye kunokusasazeka kungekudala ukuya kwezemigodi. Kwangaxeshanye, iziko ledatha kunye nokukhula kwe-AI kuqhuba imfuno engxamisekileyo yombane ococekileyo imini nobusuku, ofuna inkxaso eqinileyo yomgaqo-nkqubo.
Nazi iindlela ezintlanu eziphambili eziza kuyila icandelo lamandla ngo-2025:
1. Imigaqo-nkqubo yezelizwe kunye noRhwebo eguqula iiMarike
Izicwangciso ezintsha zerhafu zikaTrump zibeka umngcipheko omkhulu ekukhuleni kwehlabathi, mhlawumbi zinciphise amanqaku angama-50 esiseko kulwandiso lwe-GDP kwaye ziyinciphise ukuya kuthi ga kwi-3%. Oku kunokunciphisa imfuno yeoyile yehlabathi ngama-500,000 eebhareli ngosuku - malunga nokukhula kwesiqingatha sonyaka. Okwangoku, ukurhoxa kwe-US kwiSivumelwano saseParis kushiya amathuba amancinci okuba amazwe aphakamise iinjongo zawo ze-NDC ngaphambi kwe-COP30 ukuze abuyele kwindlela ye-2°C. Nangona uTrump ebeka uxolo lwase-Ukraine naseMbindi Mpuma phezulu kwi-ajenda, nasiphi na isigqibo sinokunyusa ukuhanjiswa kweempahla kwaye sinciphise amaxabiso.
2. Ukunyuka kotyalo-mali, kodwa ngesantya esiphantsi
Utyalo-mali olupheleleyo lwamandla kunye nemithombo yendalo kulindeleke ukuba ludlule kwi-USD 1.5 trillion ngo-2025, lunyuke nge-6% ukusuka ngo-2024 - irekhodi elitsha, kodwa ukukhula kuyehla ukuya kwisiqingatha sesantya esibonwe ekuqaleni kwale minyaka ilishumi. Iinkampani zilumkile ngakumbi, zibonisa ukungaqiniseki malunga nesantya sokutshintsha kwamandla. Utyalo-mali olusebenzisa ikhabhoni ephantsi lunyuke lwaya kwi-50% yenkcitho iyonke yamandla ngo-2021 kodwa ukusukela ngoko luye lwancipha. Ukufezekisa iinjongo zaseParis kuya kufuna ukonyuka okungaphezulu kwe-60% kotyalo-mali olunjalo ngo-2030.
3. Itshati yempendulo yabo kwi-oyile enkulu yaseYurophu
Njengoko iinkampani ezinkulu zeoyile zaseMelika zisebenzisa amasheya aqinileyo ukufumana iinkampani ezizimeleyo zasekhaya, onke amehlo ajonge kwiShell, BP kunye ne-Equinor. Eyona nto iphambili kubo ngoku kukuqina kwezemali - ukuphucula iipotifoliyo ngokunciphisa iiasethi ezingezizo eziphambili, ukuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kweendleko, kunye nokukhulisa ukuhamba kwemali simahla ukuxhasa imbuyekezo yabaninizabelo. Sekunjalo, amaxabiso eoyile negesi abuthathaka anokubangela isivumelwano esitshintshayo kwiinkampani ezinkulu zaseYurophu kamva ngo-2025.
4. I-oyile, igesi kunye neentsimbi zimiselwe amaxabiso angaguqukiyo
I-OPEC+ ijongene nomnye unyaka onzima ukuzama ukugcina iBrent ingaphezulu kwe-USD 80/bbl unyaka wesine ulandelana. Ngokubonelela okuqinileyo okungekho kwi-OPEC, silindele ukuba iBrent ibe phakathi kwe-USD 70-75/bbl ngo-2025. Iimarike zegesi zinokuqina ngakumbi ngaphambi kokuba kufike umthamo omtsha we-LNG ngo-2026, nto leyo ebangela ukuba amaxabiso abe phezulu kwaye angazinzi. Amaxabiso ethusi aqale ngo-2025 kwi-USD 4.15/lb, ehla ukusuka kwiincopho zika-2024, kodwa kulindeleke ukuba abuyele kwi-USD 4.50/lb ngenxa yemfuno enamandla yase-US naseTshayina edlula ukubonelela kwemigodi emitsha.
5. Amandla kunye nezinto eziHlaziyiweyo: Unyaka wokukhawulezisa uBuchule
Ukuvumela kancinci kunye nokunxibelelana kuye kwanciphisa ukukhula kwamandla avuselelekayo ixesha elide. Kukho iimpawu ezibonisa ukuba u-2025 unokuphawula utshintsho olukhulu. Utshintsho lwaseJamani luye lwaphakamisa ukuvunywa komoya olwandle nge-150% ukusukela ngo-2022, ngelixa utshintsho lwe-US FERC luqala ukufinyeza amaxesha okunxibelelana - kunye nezinye ii-ISO eziqalisa ukwenza oomatshini ukuze kuncitshiswe izifundo ukusuka kwiminyaka ukuya kwiinyanga. Ukwandiswa ngokukhawuleza kweziko ledatha kukwanyanzela oorhulumente, ingakumbi e-US, ukuba babeke phambili ukunikezelwa kombane. Ngokuhamba kwexesha, oku kunokuqinisa iimarike zegesi kwaye kunyuse amaxabiso ombane, kube yindawo yokujongana nezopolitiko efana namaxabiso epetroli ngaphambi konyulo lonyaka ophelileyo.
Njengoko imeko iqhubeka nokutshintsha, abadlali bamandla kuya kufuneka basebenzise la mathuba kunye nemingcipheko ngokukhawuleza ukuze baqinisekise ikamva labo kweli xesha libalulekileyo.
Ixesha leposi: Julayi-04-2025
